Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-31 93814.020592 98920.081859 104022.979412 109501.934364 115214.657119 120991.997540 127272.794870
2025-09-07 85849.851687 93694.706251 101751.059703 110632.483052 120138.038358 129995.793028 140980.855358
2025-09-14 80057.402871 89790.792533 100003.327882 111495.879238 124046.618003 137314.686408 152379.232287
2025-09-21 75097.254693 86196.285917 98054.043842 111629.446815 126704.561445 142894.704324 161559.565952
2025-09-28 71058.370187 83235.145209 96451.921140 111811.203438 129115.134603 147952.163228 169952.773093
2025-10-05 68688.986854 81913.704181 96468.844642 113605.606268 133155.117495 154686.420507 180115.791176
2025-10-12 66456.137393 80571.436942 96306.625586 115055.139289 136688.084399 160766.871839 189491.954002
2025-10-19 64087.578948 78922.602818 95660.479029 115827.983787 139346.437530 165781.619897 197611.791692
2025-10-26 61595.713315 76996.980623 94574.750358 115980.548617 141194.812013 169798.772068 204541.381499
2025-11-02 59504.984547 75441.194416 93827.514371 116442.044489 143330.625881 174096.510821 211767.196390
2025-11-09 57327.392368 73683.771808 92753.789262 116435.548498 144847.262650 177623.417124 218064.736534
2025-11-16 55949.425439 72829.625149 92701.531520 117597.577210 147712.549954 182713.923919 226202.856872
2025-11-23 53920.271772 71124.939957 91584.184018 117451.965966 149009.721013 185971.549863 232226.621541
2025-11-30 52855.992698 70573.573286 91838.035323 118949.192512 152280.140458 191591.637708 241105.999020
2025-12-07 51608.636087 69741.273509 91702.877964 119933.456829 154904.051696 196430.767693 249065.239906
2025-12-14 50037.331708 68441.230122 90936.147797 120090.629882 156479.075705 199982.504791 255467.255194
2025-12-21 48576.749262 67230.819989 90234.909379 120287.052565 158069.604904 203534.135647 261867.630690
2025-12-28 47993.967975 67125.872298 90906.437506 122192.579749 161780.209505 209690.421295 271485.691496
2026-01-04 47281.272002 66821.852983 91301.155041 123731.190248 165026.525518 215285.034412 280443.381174
2026-01-11 46288.876830 66115.506698 91150.902085 124551.388086 167354.244114 219742.365885 288012.670705
2026-01-18 45059.955187 65056.921745 90511.467390 124713.295032 168825.586256 223123.825973 294250.310372
2026-01-25 44028.506832 64230.195462 90144.996610 125203.010213 170697.869751 227001.615805 301118.602411
2026-02-01 42837.754652 63153.312624 89418.889103 125196.117656 171911.625332 230040.467300 306937.289767